Phyrex: It is interesting that a freelance writer of Bloomberg said that if it was in the United States or Western countries, his hypothesis would be possible, but today the government official FTX bribs is Chinese, and the high-level person who can decide to lift the freeze of 1 billion dollars, you said he would prefer FTT and hold it until now, my hamster does not believe it. The writer said, "Since the transfer came from Alameda, a trading company linked to FTX... https://t.co/ntUYQPQIbg https://t.co/5gBFBUpF19

Phyrex: Just this morning, nearly 170,000 (168,019) addresses of long-term holders of #BTC with a token price of around $63,000 suddenly changed. The current data is the sorting of Bitfinex's internal wallet, and more than 198,000 BTC changed their internal addresses at one time. The change occurred around 12:40 am Beijing time. It should be nothing to worry about. https://t.co/9V21r5fAba

Phyrex: BUSD also saw a $60 million impairment in the last 24 hours, so combined with the change in the total market value of USDC and BUSD, it represents that the main US capital has reduced its holdings by more than $260 million again, which continues to be more than double the growth of USDT's market value. As has been said many times in recent days, the decrease in the market value of the main stablecoin does not mean that the price of #BTC and #ETH will necessarily fall, but only that the maximum purchase limit will be reduced, and the amount of funds that may be used for purchases will be reduced https://t.co/69rnSpIfXU

Phyrex: This does not necessarily affect short-term price changes, but in the long run it is certainly not conducive to a sustained and stable rise in prices; after all, no bull market has ever occurred with diminishing funds. However, from the perspective of purchasing power transferred to the exchange, although compared with the beginning of the week, the purchasing power is still somewhat insufficient, but obviously exceeded 29,000 USD, the amount of USDT and USDC transferred to the exchange has increased significantly, representing the improvement of buying sentiment https://t.co/OVgg3eZWEF

Phyrex: However, as can be seen from the selling pressure data of #BTC and #ETH, the selling pressure of BTC has risen significantly, which is likely to form the largest selling pressure scale in the week. In contrast, although the price of ETH is not dominant, the selling pressure is obviously not increased, but also showed signs of reduction, which will make ETH face lower pressure. Of course, these chips may not immediately leave the market, it is likely to be a hedge to use https://t.co/4MV9NZVjSO

Phyrex: After the SEC sued Justin Sun, it again took a shot at the cryptocurrency industry. This time, the exchange called Beaxy was accused of misappropriating the exchange's funds for personal consumption and gambling, in addition to the illegal revenue from the Token issuance. The exchange may not be well known, but if you have money, you need to pay attention. https://t.co/SPx4aLjXbv

Phyrex: Today, #BTC briefly broke $29,000, which really shows the momentum for the rally. In fact, not only BTC, but also Nasdaq 100 have risen more than 20% since the beginning of the year, mainly driven by technology stocks. Compared with the drag of banks, the S&P 500 rose by only 4%, while the Dow Jones also fell. Some analysts believe that the market is like a spring, the harder the pressure, the more severe the rebound after the release https://t.co/vy4zTONlFM

Phyrex: In this historical data, we can see that the yellow line is the federal funds rate of the United States, and the price curve is the trend of the S&P 500. In this historical data, it can be clearly seen that when the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates, the price of the S&P will rise, although not 100%, but the probability of rising will be high. Of course, the magnitude of the increase varies. If gambling is already a high probability of winning, but still beware of the World Cup "eating interest" event https://t.co/Vry4ryQpXN

Phyrex: I was just interviewed by my OKX friends, who said that the content I posted this afternoon was not rigorous enough, and specifically told me why. I don't know if it's inside or not, but this time the FTX funds are due to the demand of judicial freeze, which is what I repeatedly stressed in the video yesterday. Alameda Research... https://t.co/93l9Acx6vx https://t.co/8zqFOFnW7R

Phyrex: Guys, remember I made the video yesterday? FTX's bribery of certain Chinese government officials continues to be frozen because of funds tied to Huobi and OKX's investigation a few years ago. The funds were partially unfrozen after the bribery, but it also means that Alameda Research, a market maker, is likely exposed to the exchange, which is just my own guess, of course. ... https://t.co/bgw0e2N0Ca https://t.co/mQY9pvlL5l https://t.co/bI6QkEKqOV

Phyrex: Compared with USDT, USDC's market value continues to decline, and its holdings have been reduced by $120 million in the last 24 hours. Even without considering the impairment of BUSD, the reduction of USDC alone has more than doubled the increase of USDT's market value. BUSD also saw an impairment of nearly $110 million in the last 24 hours, and it is clear that there was a net outflow of more than $170 million from the floor, compared to $300 million yesterday. https://t.co/ROrGAOUsHt

Phyrex: However, in terms of purchasing power transferred to the exchange, although both USDT and USDC transferred to the exchange showed a significant decline, the gap was not small compared to the first two days of the week. However, it is clear from the selling pressure data of #BTC and #ETH that the selling pressure transferred to the exchange is now up compared to the same period of the previous two days. Although the increase is not much, but in the case of the decrease of funds and the increase of the price of the coin https://t.co/DaRE7hUhlD

Phyrex: It is likely that more chips have been transferred to the exchange, but there are plans to leave the market for the time being, on the one hand, waiting for Friday's data, on the other hand, waiting for better prices, which has the advantage of being able to leave the market at any time when the market or sentiment changes significantly. Of course, the specific need to look at the daily data during the day to know, and it is not yet the main trading time in the United States, perhaps Americans will be more effort may also be https://t.co/g9wfIzrE2Q

Phyrex: Apart from housing, energy, which had a good month but is likely to become an inflationary thunderstorm again next month, is showing signs of rising again. Oil and gas have both broken through their March averages so far and are showing signs of rising. Not to mention the services sector, which has been boosted by high employment, the Fed has repeatedly acknowledged that the primary fight against inflation is to raise unemployment, now at 3.6% and expected at 4.5%. How can that go down? https://t.co/qhGYgclH5T

Phyrex: Moreover, the trouble is that although there will be some important data on Friday, especially the core PCE of the United States in February, it is known that the Fed most values the core PCE index, but this data can be roughly inferred from the CPI on the one hand, on the other hand, it is also "overdue" data, after all, the May meeting is still some time away, the CPI of March, Non-farm and core PCE data are more useful for reference. So it's not that this one isn't important. https://t.co/R5v2H18cc4

Phyrex: And for the current #BTC and #ETH, there is really no obvious logic, in fact, not only the currency market, even the US stock market and gold are difficult to have a clear statement, the current risk market has been a high volatility of the game game, although for senior traders is a profit opportunity, but for more experience is not very rich partners, Trying to earn every coin and trying to earn the last coin are full of risks https://t.co/yeYBRKRJOf

Phyrex: Before the release of European March CPI and US February core PCE data on Friday, there are not many macro data worth paying attention to, and more investors are still in a panic over the continuous explosion of the banking industry. For the currency market, although the iron fist of the regulatory authorities has led to the market full of FUD content, But BTC and ETH prices have started to warm up as the conversation has cooled. ... https://t.co/8G5N319bEQ https://t.co/wEjs5rcEhw https://t.co/3ltooYJl1m

Phyrex: From the perspective of funds, the video in the morning has seen that funds in the currency market have been flowing out in recent days, mainly USD funds dominated by USDC, and the growth rate of USDT is getting lower and lower, especially after entering this week, it has been unable to cover the impairment of USDC and BUSD. From the data as of 12:40 am this morning, the market value of USDT has increased by $270 million in the last 24 hours, which is also a good data. https://t.co/Qd49Xk8UXO

Phyrex: Compared with USDT, USDC's market value continues to decline, and its holdings have been reduced by $280 million in the last 24 hours. Even without taking into account the impairment of BUSD, the departure of USDC alone has wiped out the increase of USDT's market value. Unfortunately, BUSD also saw a loss of nearly $300 million in the last 24 hours. The overall gap has been enlarged to more than $300 million, and more funds are flowing out of the market. Especially the US dollar https://t.co/7s8hiOM7Ct

Phyrex: However, in terms of purchasing power transferred to the exchange, although the gap between USDT and USDC is not large compared to yesterday, it is still insufficient compared to the same time last week. Of course, from the selling pressure data of #BTC and #ETH, it can also be seen that the selling pressure transferred to the exchange has also decreased compared with last week, indicating that the mood of users is gradually returning to stability. This will also help the trend of the coin price. https://t.co/3rLanqHNB5

Phyrex: As a result, the Stox Europe 600 opened lower, which is only now showing signs of easing. The decline in bank stocks not only led to a decline in the S&P 500, but even the Nasdaq index and NASDAQ futures also saw a large decline. For the current FUD-stricken currency market, it will drag down the price of #BTC and #ETH. https://t.co/ObU3tsM0Rw

Phyrex: Although the price of gold has risen in the short term due to the adverse effects of banks, this time #BTC and #ETH have more bearish partners in the market due to the well-known problems and inability to follow, especially the falling sentiment of the US stock market. As can be seen from the April delivery option we introduced yesterday, although the biggest pain point has not changed, But we can already see that the short ratio continues to rise, rising 0.01 for two days in a row this week. https://t.co/0adSjpDyus

Phyrex: Compared with #BTC, the bearish trend of #ETH is much lower. Not only the short partner is not as high as BTC, but the short ratio of ETH is not rising every day like BTC in recent days. So from the perspective of exchange rate, while shorting BTC, the price decline of ETH is also limited, and the current exchange rate has recovered to about 0.064. But even so, investors who can still know more through capital flow still prefer BTC to be more. https://t.co/ww77zwOl6L

Phyrex: At present, there is no clear data to show whether this part of the reduction is user behavior, until tomorrow morning to see the daily data to know. But from the liquidity still can be seen, at present is the situation of low chip for high chip, relatively reduced short-term investors may sell pressure. In particular, as you can see from URPD's chart, even the current retreat of #BTC to around $26,500 has not yet triggered panic selling pressure https://t.co/mfhbaKv9y8

Phyrex: However, it is not only #BTC and #ETH that are falling at present, but also Nasdaq futures and gold are showing signs of falling, and even Coinbase and MicroStrategy are down nearly 10% due to Binance. For now, the temporary mood has been eased, but whether it will be released during the main trading hours in the United States is unknown. https://t.co/5MGGbuNzjD

Phyrex: Even the headline on Bloomberg's front page was reserved for CZ, and it brought out another overlooked piece of news that DYDX was actually facing a series of possible troubles. Of course, as long as there is a centralized financial derivatives service, it will be difficult to escape U.S. regulation. As the CFTC's complaint shows, Binance did not register the relevant qualifications. And the lawsuit was filed today in federal court in Chicago. https://t.co/qEH9VbICPZ

Phyrex: Binance's compliance with anti-money-laundering obligations has been under scrutiny, including by the Internal Revenue Service and federal prosecutors. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has been scrutinizing whether exchanges are supporting trading in unregistered securities. This time in its ongoing litigation against Binance, the CFTC is seeking forfeiture of illicit gains, civil fines, permanent trading and registration injunctions, and a permanent injunction against charges of further violations of CEA and CFTC rules. https://t.co/KGhjs7zGTA

Phyrex: After Arthur Hayes paid a fine, he received a 30-month reprimanded sentence, and Bitmex settled for $100m, ending the CFTC's investigation and is still in business today. So you can see if being investigated by the CFTC is a big deal, yes! Could it be fatal? No! Will Binance and CZ have enough money to pay the penalty in the worst case scenario? I don't have to tell you that. https://t.co/0rJvEC9l8m

Phyrex: Second is the data for #ETH. You can see that the current maximum pain point is $1,600, compared to the exchange rate of #BTC at 0.064, which is also more in line with the current trend. This also shows that if BTC reaches the maximum pain point, ETH is likely to reach it as well, especially in the process of falling, it is likely that ETH will fall more sharply. However, as always, ETH's short/long ratio is still lower than BTC's at 0.6. https://t.co/Kjur1aaLCj

Phyrex: Although there is no meeting in April, the meeting in May is at the beginning of the month, and the April inflation data have not yet been released, so although the extra month is gained, the March inflation data will still affect the May rate hike. The CME's forecast that the odds of no rate rise in May have fallen from a high of 83% last week to 62.6% now. It is not clear whether Europe's recurring inflation will act as a "mirror" for America. https://t.co/XXGEpas5CC

Phyrex: Although March is still a week away, the Cleveland Fed's inflation forecasts now suggest that April's broad inflation (CPI) rate is 5.22%, down from 6% in February, and the monthly inflation rate is 0.3%, also down from 0.4% in February. On the headline inflation front, there has indeed been progress. But the core CPI reading is not so friendly. https://t.co/c9kIU1TBxE

Phyrex: In today's video, we have added new data on BTC and ETH perpetual contracts, including the number of outstanding contracts, the value of total perpetual contracts, and the latest month of passive underweight (burst) data, as well as the data through options to reflect the expectations of investors in April. Stay tuned. https://t.co/p6PFztZcG9

Phyrex: Next is the #BTC holding range data. This data is not very different from the last two months or weekly data. It is still the retail traders holding less than 10 BTC who become the main buying force. Although the mid-end users holding less than 1,000 BTC still have the situation of gaming, they can also see the trend of increasing their holdings. The main selling pressure is still coming from the whales holding more than 1,000 BTC. Although there may be exchange data here https://t.co/reRGrqirkQ

Phyrex: After looking at the data of #BTC, it is the data of #ETH. Because BTC is quite comprehensive, ETH is slightly simpler, after all, the logic of the two is the same. Still first ETH in the last 26 days of holding time data, because ETH may not all need to leave the exchange, so the chips within a week may not be as BTC as more of the exchange's hot wallet, so it can also be clearly seen that the position in a month of ETH is mainly to increase holdings. https://t.co/S44mUHeUBS

Phyrex: From the perspective of longer holding time, #ETH held for three to five years is indeed mainly reduced. However, this part of the range has a high probability of being the address of the exchange, so from the exchange holdings during this period, it can be seen that there is indeed a decreasing trend. So although ETH and #BTC exchange rates are not doing very well, ETH prices are still rising along with BTC. In general, more money is in BTC and ETH. https://t.co/flVt4uj4P8

Phyrex: At current #ETH issuance (including burn), more than 14% of ETH is already locked in 2.0. Finally, the last 26 days of ETH holding range data, this data is not much to talk about, at a glance. Retail and mid-range users are the main force to increase their holdings, especially mid-range users are the absolute main force to increase their holdings. And the big whales, especially the super whales with more than 100,000 ETH holdings, contributed more than 95% of the reduction. https://t.co/M33kvQcJtL

Phyrex: Every Sunday's video content is more recommended, because it will introduce the latest week #BTC and #ETH holding time and holding range data, especially for short-term operation partners can better understand the trend of chips, who holds more chips and who becomes the main force of selling pressure. Secondly, today also introduced two sets of new data to help judge the trend of BTC price, please look forward to. https://t.co/FLbK0ZHRDr

Phyrex: And from the monthly data amount can be seen, although the reduction of a lot, but relative to the still existing spot bullish situation, the reduction of about 20%. You should know that the opening time was in May and June last year, when the highest price was around $31 million, and even when #BTC fell to $17,000, the long did not reduce his position, but now it is close to 30,000. https://t.co/QAuEGRIaL8

Phyrex: I took a closer look at it. If these two rising stages are one, then the cost of adding long positions is about $22,000. This reduction is likely to be the chips of this part, and it is not completely finished. Of course, this part of the chip is certainly not borrowed, otherwise the interest will not be able to eat. It should be owned assets. https://t.co/MSSpWJPgYt

Phyrex: This also creates a situation of high-priced chips for low-priced chips, which lowers the threshold to buy, but relatively increases the pressure that short-term investors may sell. However, as you can still see from URPD's chart, even the current retreat of #BTC to around $27,500 has not yet triggered much selling pressure below $25,000. Unless the price falls below $25,000, there is not much pressure at present. https://t.co/ywlhXj77uZ

Phyrex: After all, it is the weekend, and liquidity will gradually decrease. The rest depends on whether Sunday and Monday will fill the gap in CME. At least for now, there is almost no gap. In general, the price changes over the weekend should not be too large. https://t.co/MXWHDzZEdQ

Phyrex: Combined with the data of URPD, it can be seen that at present, more #BTC is still concentrated around $28,000. The current price is still in a relatively favorable position for BTC. Due to the expectation of price rise, the profit chips below have not seen a very strong selling pressure, and even the gap of around $25,000 has not been filled. Indicating that the price rose too fast, but the decline was limited, and more chips began to pile up above $26,000. https://t.co/nFhDFvrCbF

Phyrex: The #Bitcoin position price distribution as of midnight this morning, the address change on the #BTC chain for 24 hours from midnight last night to now. After the European stock market opened lower and closed lower, not only the European stock market was affected by the possible risk of Deutsche Bank, but also the U.S. stock market and U.S. stock futures, and even BTC were affected to varying degrees. At present, there are signs of decline in the risk market, including gold. https://t.co/CUUnoUTYSr

Phyrex: Purely from the perspective of the currency market, although the price of #BTC has fluctuated downward, it has remained at around $28,000. Even if the strength of the decline rebound is still good, indicating that there is still a strong desire to buy. Especially recently, the risk market has begun to lay out that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate hike in May or June, which will play a role in the rise of the risk market. https://t.co/OlVxIFpiVc

Phyrex: The second is the stock of #ETH. As of 23:00 p.m. Beijing time, Huobi has more than 83,000 ETH stored at its known address, while OKX has nearly 1.2 million ETH stored at its known address at the same time. More than 1.86 million of Kraken's known addresses have been punished by the SEC. Deribit, which is dominated by futures, also has over 370,000 ETH known addresses. https://t.co/v956fqzoQX

Phyrex: Then there is the stock of #USDT. As of 23:00 PM Beijing time, Huobi has more than 64 million USDT in its known addresses, while OKX has 3.1 billion USDT in its known addresses at the same time, nearly 3.2 billion USDT. The number of Kraken's known addresses penalized by the SEC is more than 69 million. Deribit, which is dominated by futures, is not appropriate. Instead, Bybit has more than 930 million known addresses. https://t.co/uGI0M0Hx3d

Phyrex: Finally, the stock of #USDC. As of 23:00 PM Beijing time, Huobi has more than 16 million USDC stored in its known address, while the stock of USDC was 300 million in OKX's known address at the same time. Kraken, which has been penalized by the SEC, has 180 million known addresses. Bybit has more than 29 million known addresses. https://t.co/kV0vqlsMzG

Phyrex: If we look at another data, we can see that the European stock market opened significantly lower, and it has been a downward trend until now. Although the US stock market and #BTC have shown signs of rebound, the Stoxx 600 is still falling. If we dig into the details, we can see some signs, which will be discussed later. It can be found that in general and the risk market is the opposite. https://t.co/q6Dwjwt327

Phyrex: Gold has been said many times to be a hedge against the risk market, a safe-haven mechanism. Last time, it was the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank that triggered a massive exodus of money from U.S. banks and into gold, pushing it above $2,000 at one point. And so it is this time. The trigger this time was Deutsche Bank. Although some people say that Deutsche Bank's problems emerged last week, they did not have much effect on the share price last week. https://t.co/c1BP899G5R

Phyrex: Bank shares led the losses when European markets opened today, with Deutsche Bank shares down 15 per cent, while credit default swaps rose sharply. Other banks with high exposure to corporate loans also fell, with Commerzbank down more than 9 percent and Societe Generale down more than 8 percent. Credit Suisse Group AG and UBS AG were also under pressure. The Swiss bank is one of the banks under investigation by the U.S. Justice Department into financial professionals who helped Russian oligarchs evade sanctions. https://t.co/DzfTVFCNH5